MBA 765 - Waves of Change and Fourth Wave Implications

The waves of change consist of

I. First Wave – Agricultural age: The societal and cultural triumph over hunting and gathering. Leaders were viewed as hero and masters of nature. Uncertainty is caused by nature or the environment. The agricultural age is defined by

v The control of land and the agricultural products became the primary sources of wealth, privilege, and prestige in society.
v Surplus crops were traded for other goods and products.
v Development of a monetary based economy and specialization of work.
v The economically strong (controllers of land and water) dominated and suppressed the weaker nations and controlled the economy.
v Emergence of social classes and the rise of entitled nobility.

* The explosion of pent up human creativity, the challenging of old ways and thoughts lead to the beginning of scientific thought and the start of the second wave (The 4th change wave, 2004).*

II. Second Wave – Industrial age: Emphasizing the nuclear family, synchronization, mass-production, mass-education, mass-everything, and mass-anything. Leaders were viewed as executives and masters of machines. Futile attempts to eliminate or reduce uncertainty through the application of structure, controls, rules, and procedures. This age was defined by

v Development of a large amount of paying consumers.
v Beginning of fixed discoverable and governing laws for society. Impersonal rules, regulations, and the rigidity of a mechanical universe ruled this age.
v Wealth and power shifted to those who controlled the means of mass producing products and the supply of the raw materials needed to manufacture these goods.

* The speed of transportation continued to increase and global travel was cost effective for many types of business. The invention of vacuum tubes and the electronic circuit lead to the creation of computers. This provided the necessary technology to mark the beginning of the third wave (The 4th change wave, 2004).*

III. Third Wave – Information or Knowledge age: Emphasis is on networks, which lead to the destruction of hierarchal structures and de-massification. The concept of a one-size fits all is no longer a valid assumption or belief. Leaders were viewed as networkers and masters of information by making knowledge productive. Uncertainty was created by lack of leadership. The third wave was defined by

v Information replacing physical forms of power and means of growth.
v Wealth shifts toward those who control information and knowledge in an organized form.
v The creation of socially value products instead of physical goods.
v Service products surpass products as the major economic power generator.
v The gap of wealth between knowledge based societies and agricultural/industrial (third world countries) widens.
v Production capacity has out stripped consumer demand of physical products.

* Continued release of pent up religious emotions and differences in opinions become more prevalent and pronounced, which leads to heated debates and religious wars. The growing concern over world wide poverty and concerns of the environment leads to corporate global stewardship. A revival and realization the power of knowledge and that knowledge is non-adversarial. The more people that consume knowledge, then the more powerful that knowledge becomes. The greater number consuming the knowledge results in the generation of more knowledge and the development of wisdom. Use of knowledge does not diminish it (The 4th change wave, 2004).*

IV. Fourth Wave – Judgment or Wisdom age: Emphasis is the accumulation of knowledge and this will be the main way people generate wealth in this age. It will be an age of judging what is true and what is untrue, what is real and what is virtual or fake. Uncertainty is accepted and embraced as a natural occurrence. Leadership will be the ability and awareness to recognize the dangers/risks and opportunities/successes that reside inherently in uncertainty.

v Life will make more demands and you will have more choices.
v Must exhibit flexibility and adaptability to survive and grow.
v Must embrace and feel comfortable with instability, chaos, change, and surprise.
v There are six adversary criteria that allows us to judge truth and untruth. These criteria are consensus, consistency, authority, revelation, durability, and science.
v Society shifts from the emphasis on information to imagination.
v Storytellers, coached, and mentors are rewarded more than leaders.
v Experiences and wisdom is more valuable than goods and services.
v Integration of principles (values, beliefs, and ethics) into the growing concern for the environment, personal integrity, and spiritual values.
v The melding or convergence of biology, information technology, knowledge systems, and business.
v Endless desire to mimic nature and the evolution patterns.
v The world operates at higher levels of complexity, ambiguity, unpredictability, and chaos.

Must have the ability to adapt to the evolving environment.

v Must be able to develop an awareness to believe what you see and observe instead of seeing only what you believe.
v Solutions reside in the simplicity of the complexity of the problems and issues.
v The fears and dangers are
o The impact of high technology on human connections.
o Not acknowledging the addictions and the consequences of technology’s ability to satisfy the quick fix.
o Worshipping of technology.
o Blurring or the inability to recognize what is real, fake, or virtual.
o Life void of human interaction.

*Leadership in the fourth wave will be like riding a bull. The actions and reactions of the bull are uncertain and can not be controlled, though some will try. To be successful, the rider must embrace the reality of uncertainty and careful ride and hold on for a set period of time. The only power is the power of sound judgment and decision making of when you choose to jump off and ride another bull (Gray and Otte, 2006).*

**Future markets and the fifth wave emergence will be due to the pent up need for togetherness, caring for others, being cared for, and human interactions. Stewardship becomes important after many years of avoiding human interactions and selfish acts against others. There will be the desire to display our personal conviction in peace and have our feeling and emotions safe and secure (The 4th change wave, 2004).**

The main points of interest that relate to Vantage MBA graduates and their impact to the post graduates are
v Due to the rate of change increasing, the actual skills taught or what is learned is obsolete by the time this knowledge is applied.
v Spending too much time gathering data and information that is obsolete before it becomes knowledge.
v There is an enormous amount of obsolete knowledge residing in our heads, books, culture, and databases.
v We are drowning in our own obsolescence and making big and personal decisions all based on irrelevant information.
v Important public and political decisions are based on aged knowledge of yesteryear that has no bearing on the present or future impact of the decisions.
v The continual upheaval of our social, political, and cultural institutions of values and beliefs will take place with the pace of change continuing to quicken. This is created by
o Fear of cloning
o Impact of virtual reality
o Continued emphasis on sculpting out niche markets
o Information overload
o The never ending product customization
o Spread of loneliness, due to increased reliance on technology
o Rise of religion and pent up hostility of religious factions
o The continued “Externalization of labor costs” (ATMs instead of inside bank teller, scanning your own groceries, shopping via the internet, etc.).
o Continued emphasis on insourcing where new technologies permit activities outside of the money economy. Channeling deeper inside the prosumer part of our wealth system.
o The prosumer costs and benefits are ignored and go unnoticed by our changing economy, which leads to consequences of these activities.
v The obsolesce of law, government, and politics due to technology and knowledge sharing moving many times the rate that government can react. Companies and consumers will adapt/evolve before societal governments react and address the behavior/activity/action.
v The de-synchronization of America’s institution and possible collapse in our economy and infrastructure.
v The mistake of society trying to slow down technological development instead of speeding up the necessary organizational changes.
v Growing intangibility of wealth and importance of knowledge and redefining capitalism.
v The convergence and inevitable clashes of the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th wave societies and cultures of the global economy. There will be a push to remove and eliminate cast systems or different classes of people.
v Continued movement of the USA from a land, labor, and capital of manufacturing based system to one of knowledge. Knowledge based wealth is infinite, unlike physical resources. The value of knowledge increases in value and benefits with wider circulation and acceptance of this knowledge.

Leveraging the 4th Wave as a recent Vantage MBA graduate

The judgment age will be a period of wide spread globalization and the melding of science, nature, economics and leadership. There are five regions of the future that are important to focus, because this will be a period of solutions and not just short-term results. The convergence of science, nature, and business results in the develop of these five views and consist of

Super tech is the super abundance of scientific and technological solutions.
Limits tech is based on scarcity, the need to work to survive, and the realization that nature knows best.
Local tech assumes that there are enough resources for everyone in the world.
Nature tech assumes that nature can meet all of humanities needs and that the solutions to critical problems reside in the secrets of nature.
Human tech conceptualizes that humanities real needs are not material or physical. Our principles, values, and beliefs drive our thinking and actions.
The sciences of genetics, robotics, nanotechnology, and information technology are tools to assist in the gaining of knowledge and information. Evolution of society is rapidly progressing and past or present information will not be an accurate guide to the future. The Vantage MBA graduate must
v Stop thinking and expressing in terms of either/or and start using both/and to develop the necessary flexible thinking.
v The future demands will require the use of your entire brain and the ability to learn is critical to future success.
v Innovational leadership will be the ability to understand radical and disruptive change, figure out what these changes mean (opportunities, risks, consequences, etc.), and then leveraging to your advantage.
v Wisdom will be the ability to integrate science, ecological, and economic discoveries, which contributes to leading through change and capitalizing on opportunities.
v Mastering the navigation through uncertainty and conflict and willfully engaging in coaching activities.
v Ability to shift back and forth between the big picture and the narrow details of issues, which allows one to address local, national, and global issue simultaneously.
v Leading by doing the right things as well as completing activities correctly and focusing on building relational networks.
v Focused leadership will be the effective application of knowledge, experience, and opportunity in the pursuit of optimal success.
v Mastery of judgment/wisdom will be the ability to make well reasoned choices from existing, possible, and future opportunities. Decision making is based on experience, values, principles, beliefs, and knowledge while voiding out assumptions, bias, self servicing agendas, and prejudices.
v Recognizing that the power of the internet and information technology obsolete present financial indicators that measure success of new age companies.
v Knowledge and experience is highly transportable and recognition of the real value of humans over machines is beginning.
v Future measures of success will be intangible and more behavioral than quantitative. The measurement will be the superior ability to execute. It will be the executable application of knowledge and experience into action that will define success.
v Sound judgment skills will be a highly sort after skill and will be how organizations will assess ones success and future potential. Current society and organizations are plagued by the leader’s inability to have good judgment. Poor judgment signs include poor decision making, inability to see the big picture, poor customer service, missing the implications of actions, failure to see or admit mistakes, and refusal to learn from mistakes.
v Guard against ethical malfeasance, which includes decision making for personal self gain at the expense of others. This will not be tolerated in this age.
v Values, beliefs, principles at an individual and organizational level will define ones ability to have sound judgment skills. The quality and soundness of the judgment will be based on the character of the individual.
v Judgments reflect your ideals. Employees will begin to select organizations that share their values, will leave organizations that conflict with their principles, and the importance of ethical concerns will become dominate.
v Endless pursuit of the perfect decision is not possible and leads to decisions that are not timely and results in loss of valuable opportunities.
v Organization need to become “large families” with shared values, beliefs, and principles. The focus will be on relationships and relationships will be defined as the pursuit of achieving positive goals.
v Leadership will be about taking on obligations for people, to develop them, and treat them like a colleague.
v Conflicts and embattlement will occur between the entrenched 2nd wave management values of structure, control, power, blame/fault finding, and superior/subordinate and the 4th wave values of relationship building and decentralized thinking (Gray and Otte, 2006).


References
Leading and managing closure. (2006). Boston, MA: McGraw-Hill Custom Publishing.
Franklin University. (2004). The 4th change wave.
Franklin University. (2004). Leveraging the 4th wave.
Gray, A. and Otte, P. (2006). The conflicted leader and vantage leadership. Columbus, OH: Franklin University Press.
Toffler, A. and Toffler, H. (2006). Revolutionary wealth. Knopf, a division of Random House.