MBA 755 – Reflections on Module 5 Concepts.

MBA 755 – Reflections on Module 5 Concepts.
What trend and pattern information does your organization pay attention to?
My company tends to pay attention to trends in the foundry market as well as growth in metal melting in China and Eastern Europe. Patterns seems to be focused on monitoring of days receivable and potential bankruptcies in the USA. Also tend to watch where our competitors are challenging us and what products or imitation of products they are bringing to market.

Could scenario planning be effectively used in your organization?
Yes, I think using it plan for further consolidation in the supplier side as well as the metal melting side. Mittal continues to purchase blast furnaces in the USA and globally. What would happen if Mittal decides to vertically integrate into refractories, by acquiring refractory companies - like the Japanese steel producers? Or would the Japanese steel producers decide to sell off their refractory companies? Additionally, there are suppliers that will vertically integrate up and start producing refractories and challenge their customer base.

All of these scenario may be feasible and should be explored, so indicators of this occurring can be developed and watched. Global environments tend to change quickly and there are usually no real surprises if you are on the lookout for the correct indicators.

In what ways could you personally use scenario planning?
Scenario planning would be good at creating a future for myself and how the strategically plan out how to exploit my MBA degree in the market place. It would also be good for me to scan the current environment and start recognizing what kinds of opportunities there are out there for me. The "green" trend should have plenty of opportunities to seize.

Scenario planning would also allow me to set lofty, but achievable goals and objectives. Plan out training and further education that would position me for different jobs, etc.

What do you see as the principal disadvantages of employing the scenario approach to strategic planning?
Scenarios are not strategic planning and should not be used as such. They are separate approaches. Scenario planning allows a company to scan the current environment, look at numerous trends and decide what the possible future will be. The important aspect of scenarios is developing and/or using key indicators that validate the scenario. If indicators start painting a clear picture of the future, then strategic planning can used to address the emerging trends quicker than the competition.

Setting strategic plans based solely on scenarios can be dangerous and lead the company down the wrong path. Scenario are based on assumptions and views of current trends. Strategic plans need address current environments and mid-term environments. These strategic plans however do need to be flexible enough to revise them if scenarios start to become realities.